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05 June 2020

Cumbria’s Director of Public Health responds to publication of regional R numbers

Cumbria’s Director of Public Health responds to publication of regional R numbers

 

 

 Responding to the publication of regional R numbers by Public Health England and Cambridge University, Colin Cox, Cumbria’s Director of Public Health, said:

 “The R number is very significant and something we have to pay close attention too. For the north west, the median R number is marginally above 1, showing the epidemic could potentially still be growing.  This really underlines the importance of people maintaining social distancing and continuing to follow Government guidance as lockdown restrictions begin to ease. We will be monitoring the R number very carefully and a tightening of lockdown restrictions could be possible if the R number increases. This is something we all want to avoid, so we cannot be complacent.”

 R represents the average number of onward infections that will be generated by a single infectious individual. R tells us if the epidemic is getting bigger (>1) or smaller (<1), but not how large it is, and therefore should not be used as the sole indicator of the current threat posed by an epidemic.

 R number data is not available for Cumbria alone as it would be subject to a very wide confidence interval and therefore not provide a reliable indication of infection spread.

 Full data is available at: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

 

Region

Median Rt

95% CrI

(lower)

95% CrI

(upper)

East of England

0.94

0.73

1.14

London

0.95

0.72

1.20

Midlands

0.90

0.73

1.07

North East and Yorkshire

0.89

0.75

1.04

North West

1.01

0.83

1.18

South East

0.97

0.78

1.17

South West

1.00

0.77

1.29

 

  

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Cumbria’s Director of Public Health responds to publication of regional R numbers